Polyhedrika

Natural gas demand is highly seasonal, therefore forecasting the final consumption is essential to manage the complete supply chain. Temperature is a main factor affecting home gas consumption for heating. We will analyse the correlation between gas consumption and temperature. Download this Excel file with examples to your PC from OneDrive: Gas Forecast.xlsx   This chart of local consumption during a winter month, leads us to believe that one main factor in consumption is ambient temperature. This may be due to its wide use for heating. We can think of other factors that may affect consumption such as the day of the week so we will analyse this actual consumption data with these two possible factors.  We obtain the day of the week with an Excel formula from the date. We can get the average temperatures of the corresponding geographical area during this period from AEMET (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología) in aemet.es Day of the Week Calculation We obtain the day of the week wit...

  Correlation is a mutual relationship or connection between two or more continuous variables. Regression is a mathematical model to define that relationship. Process Data Analysis analyzed transfer functions Y = f ( X ) where X was an attribute. Now we will analyze the case of X being a variable. Download Excel file Regression.xlsx from OneDrive to your PC to run the following examples. Correlation We have collected Natural Gas Demand data in sheet Correlation : This is actual daily demand during the month of January and the average local temperature recorded on those days.  From the date time stamp we have computed the day of the week (1 being Monday).  We are looking for factors that may affect demand and two possible factors may be Temperature and DOW. We will use Excel Data Analysis: Correlation Results: We detect a negative ( - 0.85 ) significant correlation between demand and temperature: the lower the temperature the higher the natural gas demand. This is what ...